This year could see frequent and more intense cyclones over Bay of Bengal during October-November and a relatively higher frequency of cold waves during winter season, India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief, M Mohapatra said.
La Nina conditions have set in. “We associate La Niña years with a higher frequency of intense cyclones over Bay of Bengal and colder winters. But many other factors influence the winter. A forecast will be issued in November for the winter months. But if we consider only the impact of La Niña then that is definitely linked to colder winters,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
The latest forecast indicates cooling of SSTs will most likely continue and weak La Niña conditions will likely turn into moderate La Niña conditions during the coming months and sustain till early next year.
No cyclone has developed this October yet. But the depression over north interior Karnataka and adjoining areas of Maharashtra moved west-northwestwards and weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area over south Madhya Maharashtra.
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
ENSO has a major influence on weather and climate patterns such as heavy rains, floods and drought. El Niño has a warming influence on global temperatures, whilst La Niña has the opposite effect. In India for example, El Nino is associated with drought or weak monsoon while La Nina is associated with strong monsoon and above average rains and colder winters.
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